Five Cyber Insurance Predictions You Should Know About for 2023
The global cybersecurity insurance market is projected to grow from USD 11.9B in 2022 to USD 29.2B by 2027. Here are five key predictions for 2023 that every insurer, broker, and risk manager should have on their radar.
1. Data-driven underwriting becomes table stakes
The era of questionnaire-only cyber underwriting is ending. Carriers who continue to rely solely on self-reported security surveys will face adverse selection as data-driven competitors identify better risks and price them more accurately. By 2023, real-time external scanning data — technology stacks, credential exposures, patch levels — will become a baseline expectation, not a differentiator.
2. Ransomware exclusions reshape coverage design
Following record ransomware losses in 2021 and 2022, carriers will continue refining ransomware coverage — through sublimits, co-insurance requirements, and enhanced security controls mandates. Underwriters who can accurately assess ransomware-specific risk factors at the individual company level will be best positioned to price these exclusions intelligently rather than bluntly.
3. Systemic and catastrophe risk moves to the boardroom
After high-profile supply chain attacks (SolarWinds, Kaseya) demonstrated the potential for correlated losses across thousands of policies, reinsurers and ILS investors will demand more rigorous catastrophe modeling from cedents. Portfolio-level cyber cat modeling — grounded in real technology dependency data — will shift from a competitive advantage to a regulatory and commercial necessity.
4. SMB market expansion accelerates
The SMB cyber insurance gap is enormous and growing. As AI-powered risk assessment tools make it economically viable to underwrite small businesses at scale — generating risk reports in seconds rather than hours — carriers and MGAs will race to capture this underserved market. The winners will be those with the best data infrastructure, not the most underwriters.
5. Brokers differentiate on cyber risk intelligence, not just markets
As cyber insurance becomes more complex, buyers are looking for brokers who can explain their risk in financial terms — not just shop markets and present quotes. Brokers who invest in risk quantification tools and can demonstrate a client's specific exposure in monetary terms will win mandates and retain clients at significantly higher rates than those who can only discuss limits and premiums.